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The Bain & Company and Swiggy report forecasts that India's online food delivery market will grow to Rs 2.12 trillion by 2030, capturing a 20% share of the total food services market.
This growth will be driven by an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% over the next six years, surpassing the broader food services market in India, which includes dining out and home deliveries, currently valued at Rs 5.5 trillion. This market is projected to grow annually at 10–12%, reaching Rs 9-10 trillion by 2030.
Factors fueling this expansion include an expanding customer base, increasing consumption occasions, and a rise in supply. The surge is supported by rising incomes, digital adoption, enhanced customer experiences, and a growing willingness to experiment with new dining options.
Rohit Kapoor, CEO of Swiggy's Food Marketplace, noted that improving restaurant density will be crucial in reducing delivery costs, akin to China's model where higher restaurant density lowers delivery distances and costs.
The study highlights faster growth in convenience-driven formats like quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and cloud kitchens, expected to grow 40% faster than the overall market from 2023 to 2030. By 2030, an additional 110 million customers are anticipated to engage in more frequent dining out, shifting towards a convenient lifestyle.
The report projects an increase in the addressable customer base for the Indian food services market, growing from 320–340 million presently to about 430–450 million by 2030, driven by urbanization and rising affluence. While consumption is concentrated in top cities and among higher-income segments, significant growth is anticipated in tier 2 cities and beyond.
Notably, younger demographics, including Gen-Z, exhibit a higher propensity to dine out, with an expected increase in monthly dining occasions from the current five times to 7–8 times by 2030. This mirrors patterns seen in developed markets like the US and China, where dining out is increasingly driven by convenience.
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